Climate Change
Posted on December 22, 2009
This may be the last chapter of my Copenhagen Climate reports. It has been difficult to write, and not just because conference-induced sleep deprivation meant taking some welcome time off on Saturday afternoon. It was not due to the fact I was in England on Sunday night to see my son Baba Brinkman’s performance at the Hammersmith Apollo – a 3500 seat Art Deco theatre in central London. Baba performed a scene from his new show “The Rap Guide to Evolution” as part of a sold-out Science-Entertainment Christmas show with a 6 night run, filmed by the BBC. Congratulations Baba! And it also was not due to Monday being the long commute back with a 9 hours time change.
It’s been difficult because I have had to digest and accept Copenhagen’s outcome. The optimist, rationalist side of me says “COP15 was a qualified success.” The USA, China and India are now publically committed to working towards a new agreement. Given the prospect of a deadlocked conference with some countries on board and some offside, along with the prospect of an outright failure of the UN-led process to tackle this critical global challenge effectively, the Copenhagen Accord is at least minor forward movement. It would be a herculean task to get 190 national leaders to agree on the best route from the Copenhagen airport to the conference centre, never mind the roadmap to a deal as complex as addressing climate change. At Copenhagen this past week, world leaders representing the major emitting nations (present and future) were at least seized with the issue. But the pessimist, activist side of me, convinced of the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by my global warming research (published in 1992), strongly reinforced by climate science since then, is appalled.
The “Group of Two” major emitting nations (USA and China) clung to their original positions to the end and guaranteed the conference’s failure to achieve its objective of the binding agreement negotiators have worked toward since the UN’s Bali climate conference two years ago. Those positions virtually guarantee a +3 C tipping point to run-away climate warming. European nations, which came prepared to increase their commitment from 20% to 30% reductions from the 1990 baseline year (conditional on a deal), took their offer off the table. Important sub-agreements were sidelined – protecting rainforests from destruction, fostering clean technology transfer to developing countries, reducing emissions from agriculture – taking a backseat to a hastily prepared general statement of concern and principle. And the reality remains that reducing GHG emissions will only become more urgent, and more costly, the longer we wait. Oh, and last but not least, Canada was assessed by international environment groups to be the country that most obstructed progress – congratulations Stephen Harper.
The main product of President Obama’s 11th hour intervention at COP15 is The Copenhagen Accord. The Accord lays out the principles for a future agreement to include the US and developing nations that did not sign up to the Kyoto Protocol, and sets up a voluntary register of commitments: developed countries register their targets, and developing countries register their national mitigation actions.
Its stated purpose is to contain global warming below 2C by cutting global GHG emissions. It commits developed countries to $10 Billion a year in initial support to poor countries, rising by 2020 to $100 Billion. Inclusion of international oversight of emissions reductions, and the use of market-based approaches reflect key US requirements. The COP15 attending nations agreed to “take note” of The Copenhagen Accord, attach it to their conference proceedings, and continue working toward a binding legal agreement at COP16 a year from now.
Poorer and low-lying countries were extremely critical of this “back room deal”. They bemoaned its regression to relying on voluntary measures, and its absence of inclusiveness and transparency, hallmarks of the process laid out by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. But United Nations Director-General Ban Ki-moon called the Copenhagen Accord significant, an unprecedented commitment by world leaders who went to the brink and pulled back. The gentleman representing Exxon/Mobile Oil in a business sector debriefing was remarkably cheerful, as the possibility of a COP15 breakthrough evaporated…
So Friday’s disappointing Plenary speeches by China and USA leaders described in my previous blog were not the end of the story. President Obama personally rallied the heads of state from China, Brazil, South Africa and India, and with the assistance of two dozen other leaders (not including Canada) produced the Copenhagen Accord.
Throughout Friday afternoon and evening delegates in meeting rooms, lounges, cafes, hallways, computer zones throughout the Convention Centre chatted, worked, napped and watched the omni-present television monitors waiting for the Plenary session to be recalled. Finally at 11:30 PM, screens large and small came alive with the sight of President Obama holding a press conference.
The excitement was palpable as Obama clearly and eloquently laid out the conflicting interests and agendas at stake in the process, the responsibilities of the developed world, the clarity of the science, the stakes for those countries already in peril. Everyone gathered around the monitor felt the same hope and relief: “finally, a US leader who gets it!” When Obama’s summary of the Copenhagen Accord was complete, it took a few minutes for the implications to sink in. We were still far from a solution; the Accord was only the barest agreement in principle, falling desperately short of even our lowest expectations in terms of binding targets and a legal framework. Obama remains “the great communicator”, but the horizon of a global climate change solution seems to have receded rather than drawn closer after Copenhagen.
The climate activist in me recognizes this as a failure on a massive scale, with vast implications for the quality of life for millions. But the political rationalist in me recognizes the significance of the major powers drafting an Accord, even a toothless one, and in the case of the earth’s atmosphere all parties must move in the same direction or none will. A small step united may end up being a greater achievement than a bold step divided.
So much for horizons from Copenhagen’s lens on the world, now back to the nitty gritty, the ideas and actions by committed individuals and communities. Those may have to be the source of the real solutions after all.
Joyce in Vancouver
Posted on December 21, 2009
COPENHAGEN- Joyce Murray, MP for Vancouver Quadra and former BC Environment Minister issued the following statement on the Conservative Government’s performance in Copenhagen and being awarded Fossil of the Year:
“Today, another “Fossil of the Year” award will be placed on the Conservative government’s mantle. Alas, Mr. Harper and Mr. Prentice have received even more embarrassing international attention on their inaction and indifference to climate change.
They can no longer hide; the world has caught on. Whether it is the Prime Minister unwilling to address world leaders at the plenary session, US dignitaries refusing to have their picture taken with Canadian dignitaries or Canada not invited to be part of 11th hour negotiations with other G-8 countries, it is clear that Canada’s strategic position in the world is fading under the Conservative government.
Our only sign of hope and leadership comes not from the federal government, but our Premiers, Mayors, civil servants and citizens.
I applaud Premier Campbell and Mayor Robertson, as well the Premiers and Mayors from other provinces who received awards for their climate change initiatives. They have helped to ensure that Canadian credibility is not completely lost when it comes to climate change.”
To see Joyce Murray’s daily blog Canada at Copenhagen, please visit www.joycemurray.ca
-30-
Posted on December 18, 2009
If you are reading this blog you are probably among the millions of Canadians who badly want a FAB (fair, ambitious and binding) international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. After all, we’ve been at this for almost two decades and progress has been minimal so far. Failure to get an agreement at Copenhagen will be another setback, delaying substantive action further into the future and making it even more costly.
Today is the final day of COP15… unless it isn’t. Conferences like this have been known to go round the clock and into the next day to cross the negotiation finish line and ink a deal.
The three substantive issues in the way of consensus have been Mitigation (emission reduction commitments), Transparency (how reductions are monitored, reported and verified), and Financing (funding support for developing countries). Success appears to depend on the “Group of Two”, China and the USA. Yesterday U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came to the Copenhagen with a financing pledge to help mobilize $100-billion-a-year in public and private investments by 2020. This sum goes a long way to help poor countries shift to “sustainable” growth and adapt to a warmer world.
One down, two to go.
Fresh hope and momentum were injected into stalled negotiations. Many details of legal text remained to be ironed out and familiar North-South fault lines persisted, but most of them were process issues which, with will, can be resolved.
Last night, when both the US and China leaders failed to take their late-night speaking spots in the Plenary Hall, I pictured them locked in a room somewhere cooking up a last minute break-through. In this Harlequin Romance-like dance of alternating possibility and impossibility, I imagined things working out after all.
This morning, there was great anticipation in the Bella Conference Centre. A special announcement that at 10 AM “The Prime Minister of Denmark, the Secretary-General of the United Nations and a limited number of Heads of State and Government” would speak on global issues. Would this be the moment of break- through?
First, Mr. Ban Ki-moon of the UN reminded us it is time for commitment, compromise, courage and yes, conscience. Then, President of China Mr. Wen Jiabao spoke of China’s promise to reduce by 40-45% the carbon intensity of its economy in 2020 compared with 2005. But he moved only a millimetre on the critical issue of Transparency. US President Obama claimed he “believes we can act boldly and decisively in the face of a common threat…but everyone will have to move from their positions”, and then proceeded to stick like glue to his Mitigation position of 17% reduction from a 2005 base, by 2020.
Still two to go
A frustrated Brazilian President Lula da Silva proceeded to give wealthy countries a tongue-lashing for bargaining in self-interest when their citizens, unlike his, already have 3 square meals a day, for welshing on their share of necessary global reductions, and for not being willing to put a bit more on the table to get a deal nor live up to past commitments.
I imagined him looking right at Prime Minister Harper during those remarks.
As the air of anticipation collapsed, heads shaking, shoulders slumping, gloom fell over the gathered delegates. A COP15 agreement felt farther away than ever, the dancers back in the zone of impossibility.
But Heads of State are still in Copenhagen and the dance is not over yet. It’s 7PM Friday and the night is yet young!
Posted on December 17, 2009
Today has been an extraordinary day. Starting at 8:00 am, I attended the Canadian delegation briefing at COP15’s Bella Centre – “No, Canada is not blocking progress at this conference”. It is now 11:oo pm and we are listening to “high level statements” from Heads of State and heads of delegation from countries around the globe.
The level of anxiety and intense hope from hundreds of countries and thousands of international delegates is palpable. We in British Columbia see and feel the evidence of climate change when we drive through the BC’s Interior past vast tracts of dead pine trees (of which cover an area twice the size of Belgium). Yet, the damage from a warming climate is still theoretical (or nonsensical, right Rex Murphy?) to many Canadians.
COP15 is the marketplace of climate change ideas and concerns, but for scores of countries – large and small – the prospect of a changing and volatile climate and extreme weather is a matter of life and death.
In Pakistan, the fast-melting glaciers in the North already create deadly floods in the South where 50 percent of the people are at risk.
In Guinea-Bissau where most people depend directly on nature to provide sustenance and life, the availability of rains and crops is becoming less secure.
In Barbados, a small island nation watching sea levels creep up, Her Excellency Maxine McLean’s eloquent plea that “a weak agreement is worse than no agreement at all” was well worth hearing. She followed, “we need an agreement that will protect the future of people in the most vulnerable countries…”
Philippines President Arroyo reminded us that “at 1.6 Tonne per capita footprint, compared with a 6 Tonne world average, we are a climate taker, not a climate maker. We are among the countries most exposed to typhoons and rain, with 70% of our cities and town on the coast. We can’t afford to leave Copenhagen without a deal”
Parallel to the sequence of national positioning and appeals, negotiators are digging in for a caffeine-fuelled night untangling multiple inter-connected Gordian knots. This morning saw a breakthrough in the previously stuck pieces that must one-by-one be released and puzzled together to reach a consensus agreement.
The host Danish Prime Minister stated, “our job is to build bridges between very strong views”. Now President of the COP15, the Danish PM laid out a new process for making progress and brought back a glimmer of hope to “Hopenhagen”. Since then, a score of small “contact groups” have been grinding through text from subset issues of the two negotiation tracks, solving smaller matters and red-lining the ones needing ministerial or prime ministerial resolution.
Despite the competence and hard work of its civil servants here in Copenhagen, Canada has been irrelevant. Once the influential “honest broker” that could be counted on to break negotiation log-jams, trusted to shuttle from group to group and find solutions, Canada has lost its credibility and its mojo. Our government is without a plan and is not even trying. Its targets are vacant of all credibility, cited for non-compliance with legal reporting obligations, and alas, the butt of jokes and hoaxes.
Australia has now stepped into a former Canada’s role as trusted statesman securing results. Today’s Canada is mutely hiding behind America’s skirts.
Standing in the hallway line-up for lunch, a ripple of movement and surge of electricity caught my attention. Turning, I watch the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy side-by-side, surrounded by their entourage of staff, media and admirers, surging past my elbow on their way to the Plenary Hall to deliver their 5 minute addresses.
In Copenhagen, both large influential countries and small troubled nations get their turn in the limelight in a comforting exercise of meta-democracy.
Posted on December 16, 2009
Today was all about politicians. On my way to the conference by public transit I bumped into Nunavut Premier Eva Aariak and her team in Copenhagen. “Why are you at COP15?” I asked.
“To make sure the Canadian government understands what climate warming is already doing to us in the North”, she replied. It was a snowy day in Copenhagen and those seal fur jackets looked mighty warm.
A number of Canadian Premiers are in Copenhagen showcasing their programs and targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, filling the federal leadership void. This morning a consortium of environmental groups awarded five provinces (BC, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia) recognition for their efforts. Several of the environmental reps looked distinctly uncomfortable praising the provincial politicians I am sure they have spent many an hour criticizing!
Quebec Premier Jean Charest’s remarks were unequivocal, “Canada led other countries at the Rio Summit in 1992, we led other countries in Montreal with the ozone accord, and we led other countries with the climate framework agreement and Kyoto Protocol. We need leadership on the environment today and that’s why the provinces are the ones receiving awards.”
At a session later in the day to discuss the “avoided deforestation” initiative named Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD), attending were a number of Heads of State and some even larger personalities.
Norway’s Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg committed $150 million to helping protect rainforests, and was acknowledged by Primatologist Jane Goodall for the Norwegian funds that helped restore and protect large swaths of forest surrounding the Gombe National Park’s critical chimpanzee habitat. Norway’s largesse is compliments of the Norwegian taxpayers’ $5 per barrel tax on oil dedicated to saving rainforests. According to the Norwegian PM, this is “the largest, fastest, and cheapest solution to climate change.”
Sir Richard Branson, a politician in all but technical terms, spoke about the importance of involving the private sector. He is leading an initiative The Carbon War Room, “to develop strategies with leaders in aviation, shipping and other industries to attack the enemy, carbon.”
President of Guyana Bharrat Jagdeo believes “forests are a bridge between developing and develop countries but there must be enough money on the table so the value of a living rainforest is greater than the value of a dead forest.”
And Eduardo Braga, Governor of the largest province in Brazil, Amazonas, commented on the difficult COP15 negotiations and the importance of success, “this is no longer the practice, this is the Championship Game.”
COP15 has some hurdles to jump during the last two days of the climate conference, but many in today’s meetings were optimistic that whatever else takes place, a major turning point in protecting the planet’s precious forest ecosystems will be achieved.
